Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Sunday's MLB games (2024)

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

What you need to know for Sunday's MLB Games

By Todd Zola

• With the Chicago White Sox missing three key components early -- with starting pitchers Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito and third baseman Yoan Moncada on the IL -- the rest of the division has a chance to make some noise early and possible challenge the Pale Hose for the division. The Minnesota Twins made several offseason moves, so they hoped to compete regardless. The Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals are in the mix as they wrap up a weekend series. Detroit's lineup is improving, but it still offers a chance to stream Kris Bubic (6.7% rosters in ESPN leagues). Bubic introduced a slider in the spring, helping him allow just one run in five Cactus League games.

• Steven Matz could be in a better position to steam, but he's rostered in about half of ESPN leagues. The veteran lefty should benefit from the league's best defense, playing in one of the league's most favorable pitching venues. He's in a prime spot Sunday, facing the Pittsburgh Pirates who project to be the one of the weakest lineups in the majors.

• Julio Urias (99.8%) wasn't drafted to sit on reserve, but as tempting as it may be, the safe play is not starting him against the Rockies in Coors Field. Granted, Colorado's lineup is weaker without Trevor Story, but last season the Rockies posted the second-highest home wOBA versus lefties. Further, while small samples are usually not predictive, in this instance it's fair to note Urias has a career 5.53 ERA in 40 2/3 innings in Coors field.

• Once the weather warms, Nationals Park will be one of the better hitting venues in the league. It will be only in the 50s on Sunday, but plenty of runs should score with the New York Mets' Carlos Carrasco facing Erick Fedde and the Washington Nationals. Fedde doesn't miss many bats and the Mets lefthanded hitters don't fan much, plus the Nationals bullpen is suspect. Carrasco is still rounding into form after recovering from offseason surgery to remove bone spurs. He whiffed eight in 8 1/3 Grapefruit League frames but surrendered 10 hits and five runs.

• In the ESPN Sunday Night Baseball affair, the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox wrap up a weekend series in the Bronx. Both offenses are clearly potent, but the temperatures should be in the mid-to-high 40s, favoring starting pitchers Jordan Montgomery and Tanner Houck. It's risky, but backing either starter, or playing the under, could be a profitable endeavor.

• It's not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.

Starting pitcher rankings for Sunday

Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Sunday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

• Gavin Lux (LAD, SS -- 28%) at Antonio Senzatela

• Brandon Nimmo (NYM, CF -- 26%) at Erick Fedde

• Alejandro Kirk (TOR, C -- 16%) vs. Martin Perez

• Mitch Garver (TEX, C -- 31%) at Hyun-Jin Ryu

• AJ Pollock (CHW, LF -- 43%) at Tarik Skubal

• Eric Hosmer (SD, 1B -- 30%) at Caleb Smith

• Robinson Cano (NYM, 2B -- 9%) at Erick Fedde

• Rowdy Tellez (MIL, 1B -- 3%) at Marcus Stroman

• Jeff McNeil (NYM, 2B -- 45%) at Erick Fedde

• Andrew McCutchen (MIL, LF -- 46%) at Marcus Stroman

Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Sunday

• Christian Vazquez (BOS, C -- 58%) at Jordan Montgomery

• Jeimer Candelario (DET, 3B -- 72%) vs. Michael Kopech

• Tyler Stephenson (CIN, C -- 86%) at Ian Anderson

• Spencer Torkelson (DET, 1B -- 81%) vs. Michael Kopech

• Ian Happ (CHC, LF -- 60%) vs. Freddy Peralta

• David Fletcher (LAA, 2B -- 71%) vs. Jose Urquidy

• Jonathan Schoop (DET, 1B -- 78%) vs. Michael Kopech

• Gleyber Torres (NYY, SS -- 80%) vs. Tanner Houck

• Robbie Grossman (DET, LF -- 68%) vs. Michael Kopech

• Seiya Suzuki (CHC, RF -- 92%) vs. Freddy Peralta

THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Today

• Toronto Blue Jays vs. Spencer Howard

• Chicago White Sox at Tarik Skubal

• San Diego Padres at Caleb Smith

Prop of the Day

Marcus Stroman Strikeouts: Over/Under 4.5 (-130/-105)

PROJECTION: THE BAT sees Stroman putting up 4.0 Strikeouts for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 36.9% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $24.44.

PROS:

• Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weatherman calls for the 5th-coldest temperature of the day at 49°.

• Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Marcus Stroman must realize this, because he has gone to his secondary offerings a lot since the start of last season: 54.9% of the time, putting him in the 75th percentile.

CONS:

• Marcus Stroman has been lucky with his strikeouts since the start of last season, putting up a 7.9 K/9 despite THE BAT estimating his true talent level to be 7.5 - a 0.4 K/9 deviation.

• Nic Lentz projects as a Extreme Hitters Umpire and is expected to be calling pitches in this game.

• Projected catcher Willson Contreras profiles as a weak pitch framer, per THE BAT projection system.