Mets roster projection: Revamped rotation, boosted bullpen and lots of concern (2024)

With two weeks left before the first official workout of spring training for New York Mets pitchers and catchers, the club’s roster appears mostly set. If the prices are right, the Mets might add another reliever and perhaps another position player, leading to interesting battles for the final roster spots. Barring any such moves, the Mets’ rotation already looks a lot different, the bullpen offers some change and the lineup appears similar to last year.

Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns has suggested multiple times that New York plans to field a team capable of making the playoffs. With the offseason winding down, here’s our first guess as to how the roster shakes out.

Catchers (2): Francisco Alvarez, Omar Narváez

After Tyler Heineman was designated for assignment on Tuesday, these are the only two backstops on the 40-man roster. Alvarez showed plenty of promise as a 21-year-old rookie last season. He should be better equipped to maintain his best level of play for longer now that he’s got his big-league sea legs under him. Brought in last winter, Narváez had a lost season as he missed time with an injury before returning to back up Alvarez. Narváez can still be a useful player. Tomás Nido remains in the organization and, at the moment, would probably be the next man up.

The Mets designated catcher Tyler Heineman for assignment to make room on the 40-man for Adam Ottavino, club announced.

— Will Sammon (@WillSammon) January 31, 2024

Infielders (6): Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Francisco Lindor, Brett Baty, Joey Wendle, Mark Vientos

Alonso and Lindor are obvious linchpins. Don’t spend too much time worrying about Alonso’s career-worst .217 batting average last season; it was dragged down by a hideous .205 average on balls in play, which registered as the second-worst for any qualified hitter in the wild-card era. (Sorry 2010 Aaron Hill.) From the birth of his second daughter (June 17) on, Lindor had the fifth-most wins above replacement in baseball — and most for someone who didn’t play his home games in Los Angeles or Atlanta.

After spending a lot of time in the outfield late last season, McNeil is back slated for everyday duty at second. He has pinballed over the last several seasons, falling from the sport’s batting champ in 2022 to a .270 hitter last year. He’s rebounded from a year like that before; after all, he won the batting title after a similarly poor 2021.

While shortening the Mets’ depth, the winter-league injury to Ronny Mauricio clarifies the third base picture for the start of the season: Baty should have a chance to run with the job. He stumbled when given that opportunity last year; the offense would look very different if he accelerates this year.

The veteran Wendle fills the role previously occupied by Luis Guillorme, bringing a more accomplished bat if a less flashy glove. That Wendle hits left-handed is imperfect, given the presence of two lefty swingers and a switch hitter among the regular infielders. Vientos saw some time at the infield corners last season, and his right-handed bat could be especially useful spelling Baty — if the Mets view his defense as viable at the position. Otherwise, he could see the majority of his time at DH.

José Iglesias and Yolmer Sánchez will be in spring training as veteran depth, while Luisangel Acuña and Jett Williams are infield prospects on the rise.

Outfielders (5): Brandon Nimmo, Harrison Bader, Starling Marte, Tyrone Taylor, DJ Stewart

If the Mets are clearly better in one facet this year over last, it’s their outfield defense. Bader is an elite defender in center field, and Nimmo should be more valuable defensively in left than up the middle. Taylor, part of a December deal with Milwaukee, is an effective defender in all three spots. Last season, New York was eight outs below average in the outfield, tied for 21st in the majors. This year, they should be a top-10 outfit with outfield gloves, at worst.

Offensively, so much hinges on what version of Marte is available to the Mets this year. A sparkplug No. 2 hitter in 2022, Marte was barely playable for stretches of last season thanks to lingering pain in his surgically repaired groin. After missing most of the second half of the season, the veteran played winter ball in the Dominican Republic to better prepare for this season.

Stewart was one of the few bright spots late last season, at one point hitting 10 homers in a 22-game stretch. Once a first-round pick, the now 30-year-old Stewart is in line to spend some time at DH if the Mets don’t make another offensive addition.

Minor-league signing Trayce Thompson is there for depth, with Drew Gilbert the prospect nearest to major-league impact.

Starting pitchers (5): Kodai Senga, José Quintana, Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, Adrian Houser

While the upside of the Mets’ rotation lacks the flash from last year, the floor looks OK. Still, there are concerns. Senga’s signature forkball stands out as an elite pitch, but hitters seeing him a second time around the league plus his numbers with runners on base point to some regression. Severino could be a boom or bust. Quintana operates with a small margin for error (though he has shown himself quite capable of doing so). Houser hasn’t pitched more than 143 innings in a season. Some scouts question whether Manaea’s changes from last season can stick. On the other hand, all five have also shown they can produce above-average major-league numbers over a full season.

Familiar names exist for the Mets as depth options, including David Peterson, who is out for the first couple of months with a hip injury. Tylor Megill has continued to work on his splitter, a pitch he showed late last season. Megill, Joey Lucchesi and José Butto all have minor-league options remaining. The Mets recently added Max Kranick off waivers from the Pittsburgh Pirates; the right-hander is healthy after missing last season because of Tommy John surgery and is said to be throwing around 95 mph.

Relief pitchers (8): Edwin Díaz, Adam Ottavino, Brooks Raley, Drew Smith, Jorge López, Michael Tonkin, Sean Reid-Foley, Phil Bickford

Creating affordable bullpens starring breakout pitchers became something of a yearly thing for David Stearns in Milwaukee, but his old organization is further along in the pitching development world than New York.

A healthy Díaz improves any bullpen. Also, the Mets made the right move by securing an accomplished presence with Ottavino’s re-signing. Still, the group could use another quality option, perhaps a left-handed one, considering Raley remains the sole lefty (further down the depth chart, there’s Josh Walker, non-roster invite Danny Young and burgeoning minor-leaguer Nate Lavender). The Mets have checked in on a few notable relievers such as Ryne Stanek, Phil Maton and lefty Wandy Peralta, league sources said, but price continues to be a factor.

People with knowledge of the club’s plans suggested before the Mets’ reunion with Ottavino that New York indicated it might have one or two spots remaining in their bullpen. The team would benefit from another addition of similar price and skill. And if that occurs, then the remaining battles for the final spot or two would become a lot more interesting.

The Mets’ bullpen features variety, which is good and an improvement from last year’s hom*ogeneity, but consistency looms as a major question for a handful of pitchers. López stands out as an example; multiple evaluators say he has some of the best pure stuff in the Mets’ bullpen, but he’s coming off a rough 2023 in which he had a 5.95 ERA across 61 appearances.

The Mets will look to Tonkin, Reid-Foley and Grant Hartwig as relievers capable of providing multiple innings. Perhaps deeper down the depth chart, right-hander Reed Garrett brings some intrigue as well, evaluators said, after making some changes to his repertoire last season, but he resides mostly on the 40-man roster bubble.

(Photo of Edwin Diaz from 2022: Brad Penner / USA Today)